Mismatch Cycles, with Isaac Baley and Ana Figueiredo
R&R at Journal of Political Economy
We build an equilibrium model of the labor market with directed search, multidimensional sorting, learning about skills, and aggregate shocks. We use use the model to study the dynamics of skill mismatch over the business cycle. During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. The patterns are consistent with direct evidence from the NLSY79 and O*NET.
Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information, with Ryan Chahrour
Conditionally accepted at AEJ: Macroeconomics
We study the quantitative potential of business cycle models with information frictions. We offer predictions that are robust across all possible private information structures that agents may have. We find that confidence-shocks can explain up to 51% of U.S. business cycle fluctuations.
Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches, with Ludwig Straub
R&R at Review of Economic Studies
We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty where uncertainty is caused by financial distress. Because uncertainty reinforces financial distress, temporary shocks can lead to "funding freezes" where firms are persistently cut off from external funding.
Credit Crunches, Information Failures, and the Persistence of Pessimism, with Ludwig Straub
The main ideas of this paper are now subsumed by the papers "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches" and "Endogenous Second Moments"
Review of Economic Studies, 87(4), July 2020, pp. 1726-1756
We develop a quantitative theory of repeated political transitions caused by revolts and reforms. The model generates a process of political transitions that looks remarkably close to the data.
Dynamic Oligopoly Pricing: Evidence from the Airline Industry, with Caspar Siegert
International Journal of Industrial Organization, 71, July 2020
We explore how pricing dynamics in the European airline industry vary with competition and customer heterogeneity. The documented patterns are consistent with intertemporal price discrimination.
Journal of Economic Theory, 183, September 2019, pp. 625-660.
The cross-sectional dispersion of output, employment, and Solow residuals becomes countercyclical if capital and labor are complements, accounting for a significant share of the empirical cyclicality in second moments. Additional applications explain endogenous fluctuations in risk and uncertainty.
Theoretical Economics, 11(1), January 2016, pp. 253-278.
I study a model of delegated search. The distribution of search revenues is unknown to the principal and has to be elicited from the agent. Moreover, the search process is unobservable, requiring search to be self-enforcing. The second-best is implemented by a menu of simple bonus contracts.